American Idol Preview

For over 10 years, American Idol was the top talent competition on television. It feels like that is no longer the case, as The Voice has taken a big leap, but it has still been successfully turning out talent consistently and more importantly, it’s currently on so that completely merits a preview column! It gets even better when you have access to the premier American Idol prognostication team* so we will give you a quick profile of the contestants as well as the the best predictions you will find anywhere.

*What determines the premier team? Well, a group that when you average out their predictions and create a composite prediction, the composite prediction wins an American Idol prediction competition of course! (Note…all that was won by this group was bragging rights, lest the United States Government worry.) 

The Prognostication Team:

• He’s been called many things… The Swami, The Admiral, Eye Candy, Baldy, Hey You, Torn, Jammie, Ice, and a few other things that we won’t repeat… It’s Me.
• Mrs. Swami, my lovely bride is the second person in the Prognostication Conclave. #ConclavesAreTheHappeningThing
• Previously introduced on RandomThoughtsIllustrated.com, we have one of my right hand contributors, The Homunculus of Hennepin County
• The embodiment of the proof that the HoH out kicked his coverage, the Queen of Political Correctness, her majesty IHeartHomunculus
• And as an enhancement to the system this year we have incorporated the Las Vegas oddsmakers as a 5th contributor.

So basically you have a formula that is more powerful than the BCS Rankings ever were for Football.

The Profiles:

Here is an overview of each competitor in the Top 10 with the kind of analysis you can only find from insiders that live in states that begin with the letter “M” who have no connections to anyone on the show.

• Amber Holcomb – There were a couple of other girls that we thought may make it over her, but that isn’t to say that she isn’t talented. She has the skills to deliver some big performances, but her personality doesn’t stand out as one that will have the complete package enough to bring it all home. Surprisingly, Vegas is higher on her than the rest of us.
• Angie Miller – Absolutely one of the favorites of the Conclave. Her songwriting, personality, musicianship, and connection have all been on display already. She’s made Keith Urban cry. The only questions are, “Did she peak too soon? Will there be some fan fatigue?”. I can’t answer, but she’s one of the few stars in this group.
• Burnell Taylor – This guy has the ability to be a sneaky pick, but it’s another case of whether or not his personality exists in a big enough way. Also, can we get some help on his wardrobe please? He’s likely to have a couple of weeks where he is one of the best couple of performances, but there could be theme weeks that cause him issues.
• Candice Glover – Probably the biggest voice out of the finalists. She can absolutely belt it and vocally there is no one that can say that they are better than her. Diversity of song choice and on-stage performing are areas to watch as potential pitfalls.
• Curtis Finch Jr. – Mr. Finch is talented. He also has more personality than many of the finalists. However, his personality strikes me as the x-factor that is most likely to actually take him down. There isn’t an inherent likability factor, and his behavior on group night won’t be completely forgotten. But, the boy can sing, so I don’t expect him gone too soon.
• Devin Velez – Through the auditions he kind of snuck up on folks. Looking at the finalists as a group, he seems like he could be the best total package among all of the guys. He’s good looking, likable, and talented in two languages. He doesn’t strike me as having the star power to win it all, but he’s one of the best in this group.
• Janelle Arthur – In her 3rd attempt to get on the show she made the finals. And she has a good country voice, but she doesn’t have one of the top voices out of this group. So the question that comes up is whether or not the country voters (who have seemingly grown stronger in recent years) will carry her farther than any of us anticipate.
• Kree Harrison – Somehow she had fallen off my radar until her past couple of performances. Of course those brought her to mind in a big way and vaulted hear toward being one of the true front-runners in the whole show. Definitely keep your eyes on her. If she has no issues with confidence and chooses the right songs, she will be a force.
• Lazaro Arbos – One of the truly feel-good stories of this show. In addition, he has a talented singing voice and his likability is very high. He does have flaws in his performances from time to time though and his emotions don’t seem fully controlled, so that could easily be his downfall.
• Paul Jolley – Good looking guy with the ability to shine in certain weeks, but when stacking up against his opponents he just doesn’t seem to have the “it” factor. I’ll throw an analogy out here that might make it clear: The University of Minnesota is to the Big Ten what Paul Jolley is to American Idol. (FYI…the HOH will not appreciate that analogy)

The Judges:

Ok, not much to say here, but I have to give 1 sentence or so on each of the members of the panel that was so expertly(?!) assembled by the producers. The only compliment I will give the producers is that they probably finally figured out the right lineup for how they sit at the judging desk:

• Keith Urban – Probably my favorite judge this year…has great chops as a musician…he’s sold tons of albums…and the ladies like him.
• Nicki Minaj – The dumbest idea in a long time…we watch all of her comments on closed captions so that the kids don’t hear them, just to be safe…she’s crazy and, though there are times she is right on, she really has no business being here. #IAmClearlyAFan
• Randy Jackson – If we didn’t have the cliches, it wouldn’t be American Idol.
• Mariah Carey – She fits as a judge…she just doesn’t fit appropriately into all of her outfits…but she clearly has the most authority on the panel when it comes to judging someone’s voice.

The Predictions

I didn’t want to bore everyone with 10 picks, so I asked the panel to come up with their Top 5 and then I compiled our synthesized prediction that you can use to make yourself look smart in front of your friends.

Prediction for IHeartHomunculus

IHH is a firm believer that your story will only take you so far, and your personality is often more of a hindrance than a help. So with those things in mind, her Top 5 are:

5. Amber

4. Devin

3. Kree

2. Candice

1. Angie

Prediction for The Homunculus of Hennepin County

HoH says that this year’s talent pool is as weak as the upcoming NBA draft and as disappointing as the T-Wolves’ season. His Top 5 are:

5. Kree

4. Candice

3. Curtis

2. Angie

1. Burnell

Prediction for Mrs. Swami

Mrs. Swami will make no apologies for picking her personal favorite first. And who is going to argue with a woman who is with child?! Her Top 5 are:

5. Curtis

4. Kree

3. Devin

2. Candice

1. Angie

Prediction for TornCartledge

In what is the least compelling season I can remember in a while, there are still some folks that could give some “Wow” moments. But enough about the Judges. #Bazinga There are also a handful of singers that could do the same, but I’m pretty sure the fast forward button on our good friend TiVo may get some use. It will be interesting to see how it all comes out and how this season will be remembered. My Top 5 are:

5. Janelle

4. Candice

3. Devin

2. Kree

1. Angie

Prediction for Vegas

Just because it seemed like a good component to the formula, here are the Vegas rankings. (Vegas had no comment when asked for thoughts on the season).

5. Amber

4. Lazaro

3. Janelle

2. Kree

1. Angie

Composite Prediction for the Conclave of Prognostication

5. Burnell

4. Devin

3. Candice

2. Kree

1. Angie

So there you have it. We guarantee the accuracy of these predictions up until the point where the first Top 5 person gets voted off early!